You Might Not See What You Think You See

A few years ago, the stat you see above came out, showing that Michael Carrick played more forward passes than any other midfielder in Europe. This was met with nodding approval by a small (and smug) minority, but with howls of disbelief elsewhere, even among some Manchester United fans. "But he plays so many sideways and backwards passes!" went the common objection. This ignored two important points:

1) The claim wasn't that Carrick played a majority of his passes forward, or that he played a lot of them, in general; just that he played more of them than anybody else. He did, in fact, play a lot of passes sideways and backwards, but so do most players, and for good reason: those are the best options that are available to them most often.

2) Confirmation bias prevented many people from "seeing" the pattern of Carrick's forward passes, even if they did see each individual forward pass. A fan who had already decided Carrick "never" plays the ball forward will greet each one as if it is an anomaly, perhaps with a sarcastic cheer or a bitter "Finally!" Confirmation bias - the tendency to interpret any new information in a way that supports your pre-existing opinions - is rife among supporters, because supporters are passionate and biased, and watch matches in a state of heightened anxiety and emotion. Supporters also tend to make absolute statements about players - Valencia "never" uses his left foot, Defoe is "always" offside, etc - statements they don't take seriously themselves on the surface, but which can still affect their perceptions.

Hint: He's Good

Not every aspect of this free-flowing game can be accurately measured and judged according to statistics. But many hard numbers can be quantified - number of crosses, number of tackles, aerial duels won, etc. I would argue it's impossible for any one supporter, especially when watching his or her own team, to accurately sum up every player's contributions to a game. In fact, we are often way off in our assessment. I'll use myself as an example.

When I was coaching at NC State, we used a service called ProZone. You may have heard of it. ProZone uses a set of cameras placed around the stadium, and extremely meticulous and tedious work by its analysts, to track and graph every action throughout a match, and represent each pass, shot, tackle, cross, run, etc as a computer graphic (with a link to a video clip of each action). There are a number of similar services, and they are growing in popularity among coaches.

ProZone confirmed something I had suspected of myself: despite over 20 years in coaching, I am just as vulnerable to confirmation bias as anyone else. Here's how it might work: during a match, as I watched on in a typical state of anxiety (if you don't know anything about the U.S. university level, just know that coaches get fired for bad results, just like at the professional levels), our midfield #7 might mis-play a pass, then do it again a few minutes later. And under my breath, I might mutter, "Having a nightmare."

But then the ProZone analysis would arrive the next day, and I would see #7 with a 92.2% pass completion rate. Okay, but maybe that was because of all the easy ones, the sideways and backwards ones. ProZone lets you apply a wide array of filters to the results, so let's look at only forward passes: 77% successful. Hmm. That's a very good percentage for forward passes.

ProZone screen shot, showing successful passes in blue, unsuccessful in red

The reason I might feel so frustrated by the player in real time is obvious: I want to win, so I want every pass to be perfect, and it's easy to over-dramatize "failure" in this context. Also, some "failures" are going to loom larger in the mind of a coach/supporter than others. For example, when a clear chance to counter is on, but the midfielder plays a bad ball, you're going to notice and remember that one much easier than the previous five nifty little balls played right into feet. That's because such a ball stabs you directly in the heart. "We had them," you cry, and then you probably tweet about it.

Confirmation bias plays an important role, too. In a game where I expect our left back to have problems with a speedy winger, I'm going to nod sagely to myself any time the winger gets in a cross. "We're getting killed down the left," I might think. But ProZone might show that the left back won 12 of 16 tackles, and the winger got in only two crosses. My expectations unfairly conflated the outcome.

But hang on - what if those two crosses both resulted in goals, and we lost 2-1? Well, then we really did get killed down the left. But such an outcome indicates problems beyond the left back, such as the high percentage of crosses that get turned into goals.

Human comprehension and memory also don't work nearly as well as we think they do (as court witnesses regularly prove). A supporter at a match might watch his side concede a goal, fume that Jenkins didn't pick up his man, then see the highlights later that night, only to realize it wasn't Jenkins' man at all. In the last professional game I played, I recall conceding from a header, looking at the defender who was out-jumped, and magnanimously deciding not to shout at him. Good thing, because when I watched the video later, it wasn't him who was out-jumped.

Once I analyzed a few matches with ProZone (in full disclosure, this was the main responsibility of others on our coaching staff, but I was often present, and we talked about it a lot), I tried to temper my responses in real time. I saw a stray pass or poor cross for what it was: a statistical necessity, and also possibly an outlier, rather than a microcosm of the player's overall performance.

One of the things ProZone, and stats in general, does an excellent job of is illustrating trends. If your side struggles to get balls into the box, or passes into the feet of strikers, or change the point of attack in midfield, you're going to see it right there on the screen, in glowing red lines and numbers. What no stat or app can accurately do is put these moments into context. A midfielder who only rarely switches the play might be a victim of teammates not moving into proper space, or might simply be on the end of too many hospital balls, and not have enough time to see the entire pitch. A coach or supporter is still going to judge players and performances largely based on what they see in real time, and this at least has the potential to give you a fairly accurate overall assessment. But there are simply too many players, involved in too many actions, to be able to judge for certain. Tools like ProZone help fill in the gaps, and take away the bias, from what we see.

What 'Development' Really Means

The word 'development' gets thrown around youth soccer circles a lot. Everyone agree it's a good thing. Everyone agrees it's a major goal of every youth club. But not everyone agrees on what it actually is.

It's simple enough to define: 'development' means that individual players get better at soccer. The club exists for this reason. To help define it by contrast, let's look at the NC State women's soccer team, currently ranked #24 in the country in the latest NSCAA poll. I was an Assistant Coach at State from 2013 to May of this year, and now do color commentary for their home games on ACC Network and ESPN3. NC State, and all college soccer teams, are not 'Developmental' - they are Results-Oriented. The goal - the only goal - is to win games.

How are developmental and results-oriented teams different? Don't we want and expect Developmental teams to also win games? Don't we want the players on Results-Oriented teams to improve? Absolutely! But there are three key differences, starting with...

1. Results-Oriented teams have role players; Developmental teams do not.

In every team, either Results-Oriented or Developmental, there is a best player, a worst player, and players occupying every skill level in between. On R.O. teams, the best players start every game, are on the field in all key situations in close games, and in general are the team. Lesser players serve to give key players a rest for a few minutes at a time, or to play 'garbage time' when a game is already won or lost on the scoreboard. They also provide opposition to the starters in training games. Players can go from starter to reserve, or vice versa, but this is always a zero-sum situation. If a reserve becomes a starter, that means that a starter has become a reserve.

On Developmental teams, there are also best and worst players. But while a coach may generally start with his or her more developed players (understanding that every youth player is a work-in-progress on the way to being the player they will become), the non-starters also get significant game time*. This is because in order to improve, players must play in games. Not only must they play, but they must play in all game situations, including critical moments, such as near the end of a tied game. Again, a player can not develop unless they are put into these situations. A 14-year-old soccer player who rarely plays in games, even on a very good team, is not going to improve.

* This changes at the older/higher levels of Developmental clubs, such as our older Alliance teams, and becomes more like college teams. But we're focusing on the developmental-age players (U16 and younger).

2. Results-Oriented teams have Specialists; Developmental teams have Generalists.

There are versatile players at NC State, capable of playing multiple positions. But you'll never see a player play in both defense and at striker in the same game, let alone the same season. This is much more common at the Developmental level. Especially at U13 and younger, players need to be exposed to all positions as part of their soccer education. Eventually, a player will develop a skill set and physical characteristics which make some positions more suitable than others, but it is a process of discovery and experimentation to get to that point.

3. Results-Oriented teams train TACTICALLY to win specific games; Developmental teams train TECHNICALLY to improve their soccer skills.

Let's examine how NC State trains to win games. When preparing to play a possession-oriented team such as Virginia, training time and film study will be designed to make sure players are tracking runners (as opposed to chasing the ball) and staying in compact defensive shape. When preparing for a high-pressing, high energy opponent such as North Carolina, training time will be spent conditioning the players to pass the ball as quickly, with the fewest possible touches, so they don't get caught in possession. Specific opposition players will also be studied and highlighted, either as dangers or potential weaknesses to be exploited, and specific NC State players will be tasked with dealing with these opponents. Finally, an 11v11 training game will be held, with the 'squad' players replicating the formation (4-4-2, 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1, etc) and style of play of the opposition. These are tactical training sessions: the team training to play a certain way, in preparation for a specific opponent. NC State also does technical skill training, but much less, for two reasons: the players have already mastered the basic skills, and they are at an age where continued technical improvement comes in only very small increments. Any individual's incremental improvement will have much less impact on the outcome of games than improved team tactical cohesion.

A Developmental team will work on general tactical principles, which apply equally to all opponents, but will spend more time on technical activities to help players develop and refine the basic skills of the game, such as first touch, ball striking, passing, shooting, and playing under pressure. There is a lot of repetition in training - coaches need to find new ways to work on the same half-dozen things. All this is in service of helping the players improve.

4. Results-Oriented teams have time to train everything, and have control over the players' diet and daily schedule; Developmental teams do not.

Young players improve, but it is not usually a fast process. Over the course of a three-month Fall season, a team trains three times a week. This is not a lot, and it also doesn't account for sessions cancelled for lightning or wet fields (thankfully rare, with all the turf fields we now have).

Some aspect of technical improvement are also conditional, to a degree, on the player's strength and physique. An 11-year-old with perfect technique is not going to be able to shoot as hard as a 16-year-old with sloppy technique; but by the time that 11-year-old turns sixteen, she will be able to shoot much harder, and more accurately, too. Technique is everything, but for things like ball striking and tackling, the body does matter. Keep in mind that sometimes a player's technical ability actually suffers as they grow or go through body changes. A player who goes through a growth spurt, for example, may need to adjust to new coordination and agility demands.

NC State players train or play six days a week through the Fall season (August-November), five days a week through the Spring season, are enrolled in professionally monitored Strength and Conditioning programs (incorporating Speed and Agility training), have a full-time nutritionist at their disposal, and play high-level competitive summer soccer in the WPSL (Women's Premier Soccer League).

The point of highlighting these differences is to note that a young player who genuinely wants to noticeably improve their technical skill level has to do more than attend their team's training sessions. The easiest and least-expensive way to improve is to simply play pickup soccer with friends. It takes a lot of touches to master the ball and all related skills.

5. Results-Oriented teams are under multiple pressures to win.

This one is pretty self-explanatory. College coaches get fired if they lose too much. Fans boo if they don't like what they're seeing.

What Results Mean for Developmental Teams

So, we know the difference between Results-Oriented and Developmental teams. But developmental teams also play games, and also want to win. What does it mean when they don't?

Scores don't lie. If a team is losing lots of games by lots of goals, the most likely reason is that they are competing, at no fault of their own, at a level not appropriate to their stage of development. It's not ideal to think of them as being 'not good enough'; they are simply not yet ready. Ideally, young players are allowed to compete and develop at a competition level that allows them to experience all variants of game situations: wins, losses, ties, blowouts, etc. Losing every game 6-0 is no fun, but it does at least come with some hard lessons. Winning every game 6-0, on the other hand, is of limited use for young players. A lack of real competition only leaves player unprepared for when that competition does eventually arrive - and it will.

What about Hustle, Aggression, and Determination?

Parents are sometimes mystified why their children don't exhibit these qualities more often in games, especially games they are losing badly. There are some reasons for this. The main one is that some young players react to disappointment by 'shutting down': they expend less effort and affect an appearance of nonchalance. This is protective (and, often, subconscious), an attempt to ward off further disappointment by 'not caring anyway.' It's worth noting that any player resorting to this does care; that's precisely why they're doing it. They just haven't yet found a better way to process disappointment. Eventually, they will.

'Aggression' is a bit different from hustle and determination. We think of it in terms of physically battling for the ball or winning tackles. Aggression is a mindset, and it depends largely on belief. A player who doesn't believe her team can win the game has a hard time 'buying in' to the idea of winning small battles. What's the point, they think, if we're just going to lose anyway?

Grown adults can see the flaws in this thinking, but young players, still on their way to emotional maturity, often cannot. Coaches and parents alike can exhort, encourage, plead - but if the player lacks belief, they will also lack aggression, as well as effort and focus.

Some players, win or lose, are simply timid, or genuinely afraid of contact. These players will stop enjoying soccer - and therefore stop playing - at some point. That's another key thing to remember about developmental youth teams: some of the girls are still deciding how much they like soccer, and some will decide to stop.

Finally, aggression, as we know, is not always good. Some players channel frustration and disappointment into a kind of aggression that is reactive and impulsive, playing without control. There are some teams who play this way by default, whipped into a frenzy by their coach (there is a team like this in the 01 Division). At young ages, teams like this can sometimes win games based on intimidation and physical prowess, but in the long run, those players are being done a disservice. When they get older, and can no longer bully 'little girls', they'll find themselves lacking aspects of the game they were never taught or were never encouraged to develop. It is a very common story on the college recruiting cycle: the physically advanced 15-year-old who dominates her league and gets on every college coaches' radar, only to become 'just another player' at 17, when everyone catches up to her size.

In Summary

Development is about players improving. It is a process, during which players have to enjoy what they're doing and be invested in improving. Frustration and disappointment come with the territory of competing. Young players don't always have the 'right' response to disappointment.

Formation Isn't Just for Kick-Off

Here a picture from Sunday's Manchester United-Liverpool game. Click on it to enlarge:

Things of note:

*United, playing a 4-1-4-1, retain this shape while defending. There are four clear lines (four defenders, one holding mid, four midfielders, one central striker) with good spacing between the lines, and good spacing between each player in the two main lines. Note that players at this level pay as much attention to their teammates as to the opponent or the ball. The only way to keep proper shape and spacing is by knowing where your teammates are.

There is obviously much more freedom of movement when in possession of the ball. But quickly getting back into defensive shape after losing the ball is the hallmark of good teams. Mourinho's teams are always excellent at this, as are Van Gaal's, Ancelotti's, and Simeone's.

*All five midfielders are behind the ball. I can't stress this enough: It takes high work rate to play in midfield. That's why it's the position with the most sub-swapping. If you don't need a rest after fifteen or twenty minutes, you probably aren't getting forward when we attack and getting behind the ball when we defend.

*Wayne Rooney has dropped deep enough to be an easy pass option when his team wins the ball (but not so deep that he is no longer an outlet), and has not allowed a defender to get in-between him and his teammates. If that happened, he would continue to move side-to-side, to make sure he is in an available passing lane.

*No player is wider on the weak side than Daley Blind, and he is only just outside the arc of the penalty box - in other words, he is still relatively central. The idea is to stay compact to whatever side of the pitch the ball is on (strong side). Even if Liverpool get a player wide on the weak side and hit the perfect switch pass to him, United have the time the ball is in the air to shift their position to cover. Thus, there would be no need for Blind to go man-mark a Liverpool player, if one had gone into space on the right wing.

Numbers and Work Rate

Here are some screen shots from the Capital One Cup Final between Chelsea and Spurs. Click each picture to enlarge.

Spurs counter-attack. Chelsea have four defenders back, in good position, and two players hurrying to track back (Zouma and Azpilicueta were caught out by the counter - Willian has gone to right back to slow the player with the ball, and Ramires is tracking back with Zouma). Notice that John Terry is the widest Chelsea player on the 'weak' side, and he is still in a central position. There is no reason to defend wider than that, especially if there is not a Spurs player making a run outside him. Chelsea are defending the strong side (side the ball is on), and the central area. The weak side is not dangerous. The lesson here - when countered, stay compact, and do not get stretched or pulled away from the danger area.

Given more time to track back in a slower attack, Chelsea now have 8 players within 20 yards of the ball, with 5 directly in between the goal and the Spurs player (Harry Kane) with the ball. This is simply a matter of work rate.

In a later attack, Chelsea again have numbers back, all flooded to the strong side and central areas. There are no direct lanes to goal, and plenty of Chelsea players available to pick up and track runs. The pressure defender (Zouma) also has the security of multiple cover players, letting him attack the ball (he blocked the shot, leading to a Chelsea counter-attack).

Here we see Spurs defending an attack, with the back four and midfield three in two clear, organized lines, and with good spacing. Again we see that no Spurs players have been dragged to the weak side, even though there is a Chelsea player making a run into that space. If the ball is played to him, Spurs will have time to shift to the right and deal with it. The primary danger area is central.

 Spurs again have good numbers back, with good shape and spacing. However, the two defenders in the boxed area are not goal side of the two Chelsea players attacking the most dangerous area. Spurs got away with it this time.

Here again, Spurs have 9 players back, with the back four and two central midfielders in good shape, offering two distinct lines of defense, and with good spacing between each player.

The kind of defending you see in these pictures takes WORK. In every case, midfielders and sometimes strikers busted a gut to get back behind the ball when possession was lost. Keep in mind, these are guys who do not have the luxury to ask for a sub for a rest. I don't expect you to be as fit as Premier League professionals, but you should be working at your maximum work rate. Too often, we defend with only our back four, with the results being 10 goals allowed in the last 3 games. If ever you are confused on the pitch, and unsure where to go, just work to get behind the ball. Sheer numbers works nine times out of ten.

Show Them Outside

Just as the Arsenal-Monaco game gave us a couple of examples of bad defending, so too did the Liverpool-City game. Both Liverpool goals were a result of City defenders failing to show a Liverpool player in shooting position to the outside. Both were fantastic shots, to be sure, but could have been prevented, or at least made much more difficult.

First, let's make sure we understand what 'outside' means. In the final third, it means showing them toward the red shaded areas of the pitch in the diagram below:

'Showing' means overplaying the opponent to one side. If you're directly in front of him, you're not showing him outside. You need to be slightly to the inside position, taking away that route to goal. You don't simply give him the outside route, of course, but you make it almost impossible for him to take the inside route.

The guilty party for the Jordan Henderson goal was Fernandinho. In the first frame, as Henderson receives the ball and faces up to goal (but is not yet ready to shoot), Fernandinho is in decent position.

He needs to get a bit closer to Henderson by a step or two, but unfortunately for him, he is running at top speed and doesn't have his momentum under control. Henderson will use this speed and momentum against him by cutting the ball back to his right:

Fernandinho has already lost the battle at this point. He has allowed Henderson inside, into a good shooting angle, on his stronger foot, and with no teammate close enough to help.

Fernandinho is nowhere near by the time Henderson shoots. 1-0 Liverpool.

The second goal is worse, because City had two players in position to deal with Coutinho: Nasri pressing, with Zabaleta covering. It looks clear from where he is looking, where his hips are facing, and the touch he is taking that Coutinho has no interest in carrying the ball wide. He wants to cut into a more central, much more dangerous position.

And both Nasri and Zabaleta let him do it.

2-1 Liverpool, and most likely the end of City's title hopes.

So, why do well-trained, highly paid professionals make these basic errors?

Because they usually get away with them. Shots from these positions usually don't go in. So players defend like this a few times, get away with it, and repeat it, right up to the point where they don't get away with it.

You'v got to be thinking at all times when defending, and the first thought should always be: what is the danger here? In both of these cases, the danger was allowing a player in a relatively wide position to come inside into a dangerous shooting position.

For those who didn't see the game or the goals, here are the highlights:

http://www.soccerhighlightstoday.com/2015/03/video-liverpool-2-1-manchester-city.html

Going Vertical

The past decade saw a rise of possession-based soccer, led largely by Barcelona at the club level, and many of the same players for Spain at international level. The presence of world-class talents such as Xavi, Iniesta, and of course Lionel Messi certainly helped, but for several years, opposing teams seemed unsure how best to handle what was called tiki-taka soccer: short passes, small triangles, lots of movement off the ball.

Playing out of the back

As always, though, teams adjusted, and in recent years, both Barcelona and Spain have been brought back to earth with a thump. Bayern routed Barca 7-0 over two legs in the 2013 Champions League, and Spain were disastrous at the World Cup. A lot of people claimed this marked the death of possession soccer, but it ignored the fact that the new powerhouses - Bayern, Real Madrid, and Germany - all kept the ball, too. But they added a new element: verticality.

Playing vertical simply means getting the ball forward quickly, rather than passing side-to-side excessively. It does not merely mean playing long ball; indeed, vertical soccer doesn't really work when the ball is played long from the back (because defenders are generally too far from strikers to accurately get a ball into their feet), or without first breaking pressure. You need to draw the opposition forward first, to open up space in behind. Vertical soccer combines the possession passing of tiki-taka with the directness of pure counter-attacking soccer. Two or three passes to draw the opposition forward and break pressure, followed by either a direct ball forward into a striker's feet, or a fast player running with the ball straight ahead. This style worked to great effect for Liverpool last season:

This style is dependent on having at least one fast player who can either run with the ball or stretch defenders. It also needs players who recognize space and know how to exploit it. But mostly it needs the commitment to get the ball forward, and fast, at the first opportunity. The opportunity will not present itself every time you get the ball. Often, the opposition will be in good defensive shape, and you'll need to be patient and look to keep possession. But if there is space to get a ball into the feet of a player further up the pitch, or space to carry it at speed, take it.

The key to successful vertical soccer is recognizing when the opposition are not in good defensive shape and attacking with speed. Teams are most often in poor defensive shape at the moment they lose the ball, when all ten outfield players had been committed to attack. It generally takes only a few seconds for a well-coached team to regain defensive shape, so when we win the ball, we should always look to attack directly if possible. Is the other team in good defensive shape? If so, stay patient, pass, and move. Are they out of position? Attack with speed - either carry the ball yourself, or play the furthest pass forward you can play.

Always having this mindset means the opposition can never relax, even when they have the ball. Once a team has been hit with a fast attack a few times, it makes them hesitant and nervous about going forward in the first place. If you can intimidate teams even when they have the ball, you're going to be successful.

Good/Not Good

Since I have new teams, think of this as a 'User's Guide' to having me as a coach. This is not a comprehensive list, but it hits some main things you'll want to know.

Good:

Players who ask questions when they don't understand something. Don't ever think it's a stupid question, or that I will think less of you for asking it. If I ever say something that confuses you or doesn't make sense, stop me and make me explain it.

Not Good:

Players who ask questions they already know the answer to, because they want me to see how dedicated they are. I can spot this kind of thing a mile away. The best way to demonstrate your dedication is to come to training and work hard.

Good:

Players who let me know when they need a sub. I know everyone wants to play, but if you're exhausted and we have rested players on the bench, staying on the pitch hurts the team.

Not Good:

Fouling opponents who have their back to goal. If you have forced a player to turn away from goal, you've already done your job. Don't ruin it by giving away a free kick that lets their entire team come forward for a ball into our box. Remember that the laws of the game prohibit you from tackling from behind, even if you win the ball. If you give away one of these fouls, you'll probably want to try to avoid eye contact with the bench area for a few minutes.

Good:

Positive, encouraging communication. Bad things happen in almost every game. Leaders help their teammates forget mistakes (since you will make them too), move on, and keep playing.

Not Good:

Negative, dismissive, or demeaning communication. Don't. Failure is a part of competition. You have to be able to handle it.

Good:

Taking risks. Outside backs have to overlap and get forward. Midfielders have to run ahead of the strikers. Strikers have to try to beat people in a crowded penalty area. And everyone has to be willing to shoot. Teams that never take risks don't win trophies. Safe is death.

Not Good: 

Wide players being offside. This is simple: if you are in a wide position, it is very easy to look across the pitch to see the last defender. Usually, you can do this and watch the ball at the same time - so there is no excuse for a player in a wide position to be offside. Ever.

Good:

Having an open mind. Any time you get a new coach, it's natural to compare them to previous coaches. When I say or do something different, or that contradicts what a previous coach might have told you, don't dismiss it offhand. Every coach has their own methods and ideas. 

Not Good:

Arguing with or complaining about the referees. Referees are a variable beyond your control, just like the weather or the condition of the field. There WILL be bad calls this season - probably a lot of them. We will also benefit from bad call. It usually evens out. Take your cue from me: I don't yell at referees, so you don't yell at referees.

Good:

Energy. By the time training comes around, we've all had a long day. You will have been in school all day, I will have already done a high-intensity 7:30 AM session at NC State. You're not always going to feel your best, but letting yourself drag through a session is not only a waste of your time and mine, it can actually make you worse as a player. Don't let that happen, even if you have to fake it. 

That's enough for now. I'll hit you with more later, but this gives you a few ideas. I'm looking forward to getting started!

Justin